{"id":69651,"date":"2021-05-03T12:29:40","date_gmt":"2021-05-03T16:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/?p=69651"},"modified":"2021-05-03T12:29:40","modified_gmt":"2021-05-03T16:29:40","slug":"the-future-of-floridas-growth-net-migration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/?p=69651","title":{"rendered":"The Future of Florida\u2019s Growth \u2013 Net Migration"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Compassionate Eye Foundation\/Chris Wind<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Florida Realtors economist<\/em>: Economists predict there will be an additional 1.4 million Floridians by 2025 \u2013 a good omen for real estate. However, not all of the state\u2019s counties will see equal growth over the coming years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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ORLANDO, Fla. \u2013 What will Florida\u2019s population be in 2025? Estimates from both Florida\u2019s Office of Economic & Demographic Research (EDR) and the University of Florida\u2019s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) anticipate over 23 million people will reside in the Sunshine State.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a 7% increase from their 2020 population estimate of 21.6 million (created before the release of the official Census count) and good news for real estate \u2013 increased population generates demand for housing.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s insight to draw from each of the different, but similarly trending, estimates. EDR provides breakdowns into the components of population: net natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration, while BEBR presents a projection for each Florida county.<\/p>\n

Before we look ahead, let\u2019s revisit the past. Since 2010, Florida added nearly 2.9 million people. Of that growth, approximately 10% of the gain happened through natural increase. The remaining 90% was attributed to net migration; more residents come to Florida than leave, and the share of growth due to net migration increased over the years.<\/p>\n

Now we go back, back to the future. EDR provides a bleak picture for natural increase. It anticipates the number of deaths will be higher than births.<\/p>\n

Still, net migration will more than cover the losses from natural increase through 2039, where the estimates stop.<\/p>\n

\"GrowthPopulation gains will not be distributed evenly across counties. Using BEBR\u2019s baseline estimates, which they believe generally provide the most accurate forecast, rural counties are expected to have less growth than other areas of the state \u2013 a continuation of a familiar trend. On the other hand, many counties are predicted to see double-digit increases.<\/p>\n

Top 10 Population Growth Counties (2020-2025)<\/p>\n

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  1. Sumter: 18.7%<\/li>\n
  2. Osceola: 17.2%<\/li>\n
  3. St. John\u2019s: 16.3%<\/li>\n
  4. Walton: 15.0%<\/li>\n
  5. Flagler: 12.4%<\/li>\n
  6. Lake: 11.6%<\/li>\n
  7. Nassau: 11.1%<\/li>\n
  8. Lee: 10.5%<\/li>\n
  9. St. Lucie: 10.4%<\/li>\n
  10. Orange: 10.1%<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    BEBR estimates county growth through 2045. Sumter (68%) and Osceola (66%) still achieve the highest gains among Florida counties.<\/p>\n

    While reviewing your business plan, population estimates can serve as an informative piece of the puzzle. BEBR incorporates past estimation errors to calculate low and high estimates. The range is useful to evaluate potential diversions that may reflect reality once the population is known.<\/p>\n

    Whether you\u2019re in a high growth area or a low growth area, your next step is finding the source of the population gain and whether these new residents could be your next client. Geographic mobility data can be found on the\u00a0Census website<\/a>\u00a0and county-to-county movement is available through the\u00a0Census Flows Mapper<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    Discover more about the growth projections through the following links:<\/p>\n

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    1. University of Florida\u2019s Bureau of Economic and Business Research<\/a><\/li>\n
    2. Florida\u2019s Office of Economic & Demographic Research<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      By Erica Plemmons<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Compassionate Eye Foundation\/Chris Wind Florida Realtors economist: Economists predict there will be an additional 1.4 million Floridians by 2025 \u2013 a good omen for real estate. However, not all of the state\u2019s counties will see equal growth over the coming years. ORLANDO, Fla. \u2013 What will Florida\u2019s population be in 2025? Estimates from both Florida\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1401,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_expiration-date-status":"saved","_expiration-date":0,"_expiration-date-type":"","_expiration-date-categories":[],"_expiration-date-options":[]},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69651"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1401"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=69651"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69651\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69652,"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69651\/revisions\/69652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=69651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=69651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.myewm.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=69651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}